Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric naive lstm cnn xgboost
diff_of_means -1.098 1.455 -5.268 7.534
ratio_of_sd 0.830 0.809 0.916 0.857
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.539 0.581 0.632 0.529
maximum_error 0.302 0.339 0.358 0.277
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.587 0.333 0.324 0.436
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.815 0.832 0.892 0.951
qqplot_mae 0.029 0.032 0.028 0.018
acf_mae 0.152 0.111 0.088 0.110
extremogram_mae 0.109 0.058 0.057 0.083

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric lstm xgboost naive cnn
diff_of_means -1.320 4.573 -4.781 -8.991
ratio_of_sd 0.849 0.878 0.894 0.984
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.591 0.526 0.552 0.642
maximum_error 0.340 0.270 0.316 0.361
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.227 0.387 0.378 0.246
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.798 0.901 0.792 0.859
qqplot_mae 0.033 0.019 0.028 0.030
acf_mae 0.117 0.121 0.147 0.081
extremogram_mae 0.069 0.090 0.117 0.056

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric lstm naive xgboost cnn
diff_of_means -1.299 -4.318 5.570 -8.858
ratio_of_sd 0.870 0.901 0.890 1.011
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.590 0.551 0.533 0.649
maximum_error 0.348 0.315 0.267 0.367
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.292 0.474 0.407 0.279
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.819 0.808 0.937 0.886
qqplot_mae 0.031 0.026 0.017 0.030
acf_mae 0.115 0.154 0.117 0.091
extremogram_mae 0.078 0.124 0.094 0.078

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric xgboost lstm naive cnn
diff_of_means -18.592 -22.314 -24.890 -29.173
ratio_of_sd 0.933 0.892 0.884 0.992
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.618 0.703 0.599 0.758
maximum_error 0.285 0.346 0.295 0.349
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.340 0.206 0.442 0.245
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.740 0.669 0.655 0.712
qqplot_mae 0.037 0.046 0.053 0.042
acf_mae 0.145 0.126 0.182 0.112
extremogram_mae 0.082 0.049 0.103 0.041

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric naive cnn lstm xgboost
diff_of_means 19.995 20.206 20.644 30.082
ratio_of_sd 0.709 0.738 0.711 0.707
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.451 0.490 0.491 0.416
maximum_error 0.281 0.394 0.333 0.248
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.569 0.262 0.263 0.461
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.995 1.141 1.026 1.204
qqplot_mae 0.037 0.052 0.044 0.041
acf_mae 0.171 0.095 0.115 0.128
extremogram_mae 0.161 0.095 0.081 0.127

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric naive cnn lstm xgboost
diff_of_means 6.056 7.437 7.760 17.315
ratio_of_sd 0.787 0.824 0.790 0.784
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.511 0.574 0.562 0.487
maximum_error 0.275 0.390 0.319 0.240
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.565 0.314 0.269 0.461
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.874 1.005 0.916 1.060
qqplot_mae 0.029 0.035 0.033 0.025
acf_mae 0.154 0.082 0.103 0.108
extremogram_mae 0.106 0.056 0.048 0.078

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric cnn naive lstm xgboost
diff_of_means 18.025 18.193 18.707 28.620
ratio_of_sd 0.778 0.734 0.733 0.728
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.501 0.465 0.500 0.427
maximum_error 0.412 0.276 0.325 0.252
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.255 0.473 0.255 0.409
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 1.142 0.979 1.012 1.192
qqplot_mae 0.049 0.036 0.043 0.040
acf_mae 0.088 0.153 0.111 0.109
extremogram_mae 0.085 0.135 0.078 0.106

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97